Nevamind
Annual client financial model framework — FY 2026 (Jun 2026 – May 2027)
Nevamind's financial model tracks the Boids product unit economics across M1–M12:
What ARR, gross margin, and CAC payback can Boids realistically deliver across M1–M12, and at what cash burn?
Base scenario anchored to Boids public launch (Jun 8, 2026). M6 growth targets from aligned target model (2026-05-24). M9/M12 extrapolated from channel curves.
| Version | v0.4.0-draft |
| Fiscal year | FY 2026 |
| Horizon | M1–M12 |
| Primary lane | Boids (boids.so) |
| Currency | USD |
| Model owner | CFO Office |
| GTM owner | Growth (CGO) |
| Business owner | Nevamind (Chen Hong) |
| Legal review | Required |
| Lens | Annual decision | Owner | Evidence required |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevamind board | Continue Boids investment, redirect to doppelganger, or cut spend | Chen Hong + investors | M3 PMF gate, M6 ARR run-rate, blended LTV365/CAC |
| Growth | Scale winning channels, pause underperformers, redesign creative | CGO | CAC by channel, LTV365/CAC, kill-signal triggers |
| CFO | FY 2027 budget envelope and lane portfolio | CFO + board | Full-year Boids unit economics reconciliation |
Boids annual driver model
Nevamind-side unit economics across M1–M12. M6 anchors from aligned target model (2026-05-24). M9/M12 extrapolated from channel curves.
| Segment | Mix ratio | M6 ARPA (USD/mo) | Target CPA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 普通 C (Consumer) | 10x | $24 | $2 | Volume / DAU base |
| Pro C (Orchestrator) | 3x | $50 | $10 | Stable subscription |
| 创作者 (Creator) | 1x | $180 | $30 | High ARPA, k-factor source |
| Driver | M1 (Jun-26) | M3 (Aug-26) | M6 (Nov-26) | M9 (Feb-27) | M12 (May-27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New registrations | 5,200 | 20,800 | ~52,000 | ~95,000 | ~140,000 |
| Cumulative registrations | 5,200 | 36,400 | ~200,000* | ~440,000 | ~750,000 |
| Blended CPA (USD) | $4.62 | $4.98 | ~$5.40 | ~$5.20 | ~$5.00 |
| Monthly acquisition spend | $24,000 | $100,036 | ~$280K | ~$494K | ~$700K |
| Paid conversion rate | 6.8% | 8.5% | ~11% | ~12% | ~13% |
| Cumulative paid users (net) | 352 | 3,033 | ~13,703* | ~38K | ~75K |
| Blended ARPA (USD) | $33 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 |
| MRR (month-end, gross) | $11,600 | $83,712 | $593,145* | ~$1.65M | ~$3.5M |
| ARR run-rate (gross) | $0.14M | $1.0M | $7.1M* | $19.8M | ~$42M |
CFO reconciliation notes: Paid conversion rates sourced from growth plan §12.2. M12 cumulative paid users (~75K) is a net figure (~15% churn discount from ~88K gross). M12 ARR ($42M) is below the naive 75K x $60 x 12 = $54M — gap reflects ARPA convergence, segment-mix drag, and early-cohort churn weighting. Flagged as assumed until M3 actuals validate.
| Stream | Formula | FY 2026 base |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription (Pro C + 创作者) | active paid x ARPA x months | sum of monthly MRR |
| Pay-as-you-go credit (普通 C) | credits consumed x USD/credit | from token ledger |
| Creator GMV (take rate) | published-agent rev x take % | ramps M4+ onward |
| Trial credit liability ($2/reg) | new regs x $2 | up to $1.5M nominal |
| Metric | M3 floor | M6 target | M12 target | Kill signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTV365 / CAC | ≥ 1.0 | ≥ 2.0 | ≥ 3.0 | < 0.7 x2mo |
| LTV30 / CAC | ≥ 0.30 | ≥ 0.40 | ≥ 0.50 | < 0.20 x2mo |
| CAC payback | ≤ 18 mo | ≤ 12 mo | ≤ 9 mo | > 24 mo |
| Gross margin | ≥ 48% | ≥ 55% | ≥ 63% | < 40% |
| Use → Create (Pro C D7) | ≥ 12% | ≥ 25% | ≥ 30% | < 8% PMF |
| Cost | Formula | FY est. | Internal only? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition (Google Ads) | Q1 $72K + Q2 $120K + Q3 $120K + Q4 $168K | $480K | No (joint dashboard) |
| Acquisition (all channels) | Channel-mix % applied to monthly totals | ~$1.7M | No |
| Model / inference cost | tokens x provider unit cost x agent multiplier | — | Yes |
| Infra / gateway / storage | runs x infra unit cost | — | Yes |
| Trial-credit utilization | redeemed credits x marginal model cost | — | Yes |
| Customer support / ops | hours x loaded rate | — | Yes |
| Creator revenue share | creator GMV x payout % | — | No (contractual) |
| Refund / chargeback | rate x revenue | — | Yes |
Monthly revenue, cost, profit
Base-scenario UE forecast by month, June 2026 → May 2027. Anchored to §5.2 driver schedule with geometric interpolation between M1, M3, M6, M9, M12 milestones. CFO planning estimates only — not booked numbers.
CFO flag. M3 GM at 36% — below the 48% floor; trial-credit overhang + agent inference costs dominate early MRR. Acquisition spend FY total $3.92M above §A17 cap of $1.7M — see Q9 (open). GM revised to align with L1 AI industry benchmarks (Cursor ~55%, Copilot ~50–60%).
Annual P&L scenario summary
Four-scenario framework for the Boids client P&L. Base scenario is the planning anchor.
Boids client scenarios
Hold; cut to 1 lane; recheck M6
Continue, scale Q3+Q4
Scale, raise Series A bridge
Pause paid; redesign Pro C onboarding
Integrated KPI framework
KPI hierarchy for the Boids client P&L with CFO linkage.
| Layer | Boids KPI | CFO link |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic | M3 PMF gate, M6 ARR, M12 LTV/CAC | Recognized vs deferred revenue |
| Growth | Registrations by segment/channel, blended CPA, D7 retention | CAC, ROI, channel attribution |
| Usage | Agent runs, tokens, credits consumed, Use→Create rate | Unit cost, gross margin |
| Quality | Activation quality, NPS (creators), refund rate | Refund / rework risk |
| Cash | Boids MRR, prepaid credit balance, $2 trial liability | Cash flow, financing cost |
| Learning | Boids playbook v2, channel CPM/CPC/CPA benchmarks | Future-margin uplift |
Key variables & input parameters
Single tunable surface for scenario adjustment. All downstream P&L, cash, and KPI dashboards read from here.
| # | Parameter | Symbol | Base | Conservative | Upside | Sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | M1 new registrations | reg_M1 | 5,200 | 3,000 | 7,000 | |
| A2 | Monthly reg. growth multiplier (M1→M3) | reg_growth_q1 | 2.0x | 1.5x | 2.5x | |
| A3 | M3→M12 registration ramp curve | reg_curve | per §9 pacing | flatten 30% | steepen 25% | |
| A4 | Segment mix | mix | 10:3:1 | 12:2:1 | 8:4:2 | |
| A5 | ARPA — 普通 C | arpa_C | $24 | $18 | $30 | |
| A6 | ARPA — Pro C | arpa_PC | $50 | $40 | $65 | |
| A7 | ARPA — 创作者 | arpa_CR | $180 | $140 | $220 | |
| A8 | Blended paid-conversion rate | pc_rate | 6.8% → 13% | 5% → 10% | 8% → 16% | |
| A9 | D7 retention (blended) | ret_D7 | 35% → 50% | 25% → 40% | 45% → 60% | |
| A10 | D365 retention (paid) | ret_D365_paid | 50–65% | 40–55% | 60–75% | |
| A11 | Blended CPA | cpa_blended | $4.62 → $5.00 | $6.50 → $7.50 | $3.80 → $4.20 | |
| A12 | Channel mix — Google Ads % | mix_google | per §12.1 | +10pp | -10pp | |
| A13 | Channel mix — KOL % | mix_kol | per §12.1 | -5pp | +5pp | |
| A14 | Use → Create rate (Pro C D7) | use_create_PC | 12% → 30% | 8% → 20% | 18% → 40% | |
| A15 | $2 trial credit utilization | trial_burn | 65% | 80% | 50% | |
| A16 | Boids gross margin | gm_boids | 50–60% | 42–52% | 55–63% | |
| A17 | Acquisition spend cap (FY, all channels) | cap_acq | $1.7M | $1.0M | $2.4M | |
| A18 | Creator GMV start month | gmv_start | M4 | M6 | M3 | |
| A19 | Marketplace take rate | take_rate | 15% | 10% | 25% | |
| A20 | Refund / chargeback rate | refund_rate | 2% | 4% | 1% |
Controls and review gates
Governance checkpoints for model integrity throughout FY 2026.
| Gate | Required check | Owner | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Registry check | nevamind ID, route, access level | CFO + registry | Quarterly |
| Revenue recognition | Subscription straight-line, credit at consumption | CFO | Monthly close |
| Cost allocation | Direct vs shared, internal vs reimbursable | CFO | Monthly close |
| GTM metric validity | Event dictionary, attribution method | GTM OS | Weekly |
| Trial-credit accounting | $2/reg liability — accrue or expense? | CFO + ext. accountant | M1 close, then quarterly |
| Annual decision | Continue / scale / pause / redesign / exit | Board + CFO | M6 mid-year + M12 close |
Blocking items
Unresolved questions requiring CFO or board decision before model can be finalized.